amei: An R Package for the Adaptive Management of Epidemiological Interventions

The amei package for R is a tool that provides a flexible statistical framework for generating optimal epidemiological interventions that are designed to minimize the total expected cost of an emerging epidemic. Uncertainty regarding the underlying disease parameters is propagated through to the decision process via Bayesian posterior inference. The strategies produced through this framework are adaptive: vaccination schedules are iteratively adjusted to reflect the anticipated trajectory of the epidemic given the current population state and updated parameter estimates. This document briefly covers the background and methodology underpinning the implementation provided by the package and contains extensive examples showing the functions and methods in action.

Validating soil denitrification models based on laboratory N2 and N2O fluxes and underlying processes derived by stable isotope approaches: concept, methods and regulation of measured fluxes

Robust denitrification data suitable to validate soil N2 fluxes in denitrification models are scarce due to methodical limitations and the extreme spatio-temporal heterogeneity of denitrification in soils. Numerical models have become essential tools to predict denitrification at different scales. Model performance could either be tested for total gaseous flux (NO + N2O + N2), individual denitrification products (e.g. N2O and/or NO) or for the effect of denitrification factors (e.g. C-availability, respiration, diffusivity, anaerobic volume, etc.). While there are numerous examples for validating N2O fluxes, there are neither robust field data of N2 fluxes nor sufficiently resolved measurements of control factors used as state variables in the models. Here we present the concept, methods and first results of collecting model validation data. This is part of the coordinated research unit “Denitrification in Agricultural Soils: Integrated Control and Modelling at Various Scales” (DASIM). Novel approaches are used including analysis of stable isotopes, microbial communities, pore structure and organic matter fractions to provide denitrification data sets comprising as much detail on activity and regulation as possible. This will be the basis to validate existing and calibrate new denitrification models that are applied and/or developed by DASIM subprojects. To allow model testing in a wide range of conditions, denitrification control factors are varied in the initial settings (pore volume, plant residues, mineral N, pH) but also over time, where moisture, temperature, and mineral N are manipulated according to typical time patterns in the field. This is realized by including precipitation events, fertilization (via irrigation), drainage (via water potential) and temperature in the course of incubations. Moreover, oxygen concentration is varied to simulate anaerobic events. The 15N gas flux method is employed to quantify N2 and N2O emissions from various pools and processes

amei: An R Package for the Adaptive Management of Epidemiological Interventions

The <b>amei</b> package for <b>R</b> is a tool that provides a flexible statistical framework for generating optimal epidemiological interventions that are designed to minimize the total expected cost of an emerging epidemic. Uncertainty regarding the underlying disease parameters is propagated through to the decision process via Bayesian posterior inference. The strategies produced through this framework are adaptive: vaccination schedules are iteratively adjusted to reflect the anticipated trajectory of the epidemic given the current population state and updated parameter estimates. This document briefly covers the background and methodology underpinning the implementation provided by the package and contains extensive examples showing the functions and methods in action

A Statistical Framework for the Adaptive Management of Epidemiological Interventions

Background: Epidemiological interventions aim to control the spread of infectious disease through various mechanisms, each carrying a different associated cost. Methodology: We describe a flexible statistical framework for generating optimal epidemiological interventions that are designed to minimize the total expected cost of an emerging epidemic while simultaneously propagating uncertainty regarding the underlying disease model parameters through to the decision process. The strategies produced through this framework are adaptive: vaccination schedules are iteratively adjusted to reflect the anticipated trajectory of the epidemic given the current population state and updated parameter estimates. Conclusions: Using simulation studies based on a classic influenza outbreak, we demonstrate the advantages of adaptiv

Comparative studies on the structure of an upland African stream ecosystem

Upland stream systems have been extensively investigated in Europe, North America and Australasia and many of the central ideas concerning their function are based on these systems. One central paradigm, the river continuum concept is ultimately derived from those North American streams whose catchments remain forested with native vegetation. Streams of the tropics may or may not fit the model. They have been little studied. The Amani Nature Reserve in the East Usambara Mountains of north-eastern Tanzania offers an opportunity to bring these naturally forested systems to the attention of the ecological community. This article describes a comparison made between two lengths of the River Dodwe in this area. The work was carried out by a group of postgraduate students from eighteen European and African countries with advice from five staff members, as part of a course organised by the Tropical Biology Association. Rigorous efforts were made to standardise techniques, in a situation where equipment and laboratory facilities were very basic, through a management structure and deliberate allocation of work to specialists in each area.The article offers a summary of invertebrate communities found in the stream and its biomass. Crabs seem to be the key organism in both sections of the streams

Gigahertz (GHz) hard x-ray imaging using fast scintillators

Gigahertz (GHz) imaging technology will be needed at high-luminosity X-ray and charged particle sources. It is plausible to combine fast scintillators with the latest picosecond detectors and GHz electronics for multi-frame hard Xray imaging and achieve an inter-frame time of less than 10 ns. The time responses and light yield of LYSO, LaBr_3, BaF_2 and ZnO are measured using an MCP-PMT detector. Zinc Oxide (ZnO) is an attractive material for fast hard X-ray imaging based on GEANT4 simulations and previous studies, but the measured light yield from the samples is much lower than expected

Dynamic Health Policies for Controlling the Spread of Emerging Infections: Influenza as an Example

The recent appearance and spread of novel infectious pathogens provide motivation for using models as tools to guide public health decision-making. Here we describe a modeling approach for developing dynamic health policies that allow for adaptive decision-making as new data become available during an epidemic. In contrast to static health policies which have generally been selected by comparing the performance of a limited number of pre-determined sequences of interventions within simulation or mathematical models, dynamic health policies produce “real-time” recommendations for the choice of the best current intervention based on the observable state of the epidemic. Using cumulative real-time data for disease spread coupled with current information about resource availability, these policies provide recommendations for interventions that optimally utilize available resources to preserve the overall health of the population. We illustrate the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where we assume that two types of intervention may be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned “on” or “off” repeatedly during the course of epidemic. In this example, the optimal dynamic health policy maximizes the overall population's health during the epidemic by specifying at any point of time, based on observable conditions, (1) the number of individuals to vaccinate if vaccines are available, and (2) whether the transmission-reducing intervention should be either employed or removed

Gigahertz (GHz) hard x-ray imaging using fast scintillators

Gigahertz (GHz) imaging technology will be needed at high-luminosity X-ray and charged particle sources. It is plausible to combine fast scintillators with the latest picosecond detectors and GHz electronics for multi-frame hard Xray imaging and achieve an inter-frame time of less than 10 ns. The time responses and light yield of LYSO, LaBr_3, BaF_2 and ZnO are measured using an MCP-PMT detector. Zinc Oxide (ZnO) is an attractive material for fast hard X-ray imaging based on GEANT4 simulations and previous studies, but the measured light yield from the samples is much lower than expected

Comparative studies on the structure of an upland African stream ecosystem

Upland stream systems have been extensively investigated in Europe,North America and Australasia and many of the central ideas concerningtheir function are based on these systems. One central paradigm, the rivercontinuum concept (Vannote et al. 1980) is ultimately derived from thoseNorth American streams whose catchments remain forested with nativevegetation